India: Need for new alignments against China

China is a formidable adversary whose nefarious designs and deeds need to be countered on many fronts.— KK Srivastava

Let’s, for a moment, kept jingoism aside and face stark realities two facts are inescapable. One, partly due to its expansionist designs and partly due to current domestic compulsions China remains ever hostile to India. And, two, there is an asymmetry of power between China and India, economically and militarily. Yet there is no gainsaying the fact that India has dealt with this aggression to the best of its abilities. It has fortified its borders. It has declared that no normalization of relations is possible until border status is restored. More importantly, it has deepened its collaboration with the US, on bilateral basis and under the Quad umbrella. This has both cautioned and angered China, but for India it has expanded its geopolitical options. 

India has been taking effective steps to build public world opinion against Chinese invasions into Indian territories on one hand, and at the some time adding to own economic and military might. The aim ultimately is to make it more costly for China to engage in aggression on borders facing India. Not that China will abandon its salami slicing tactical attacks, given the new doctrine of sovereignty – and consequent national mobilization – under the current President, Xi Jinping. The only option for India is to remain wary of our neighbour, build international opinion against it, and add to out economic, military, and diplomatic powers against our hostile nation. One inference is inescapable, however: India can’t do it alone. Notwithstanding a temporary deceleration of China’s growth, Chinese influence in our neighborhood – South Asia – is growing. Chinese trade with the countries there is growing, they are getting deeply entrenched in the projects under the Belt and Road initiative, they are getting entrapped in associated debt problem, they are militarily closer to China and many times, echo Chinese opinion on international issues. We failed to ‘Look East’ for far too long. In other words Chinese sphere of influence is growing in Asia. A counterforce must emerge which should work to India’s advantage. What about US-Chinese relations?

As events are unfolding, even if not in immediate future, there is a strong possibility of emergence of a bipolar – US and China – world, other nations will have to then take care of their interests through hedging, balancing, and hand holding. In such a world whether US and China adopt confrontational or collaborative stance it is not in India’s favour. If the two nations fight, India will bear the brunt of such rivalry since it is in immediate neighborhood of China which will show its displeasure against us. On the other hand if US accepts China as its equal peer, it will not object to China flexing its muscles against India. Either way thus India has to be very cautions. 

There are, however, certain comforting factors for India that suggest that it is China which has bigger stakes on world stage than India. One, India is a small player in Chinese world view. While China does want – eventually – to make India accept Chinese predominance – in Asia as well as on world theatre – it is not an immediate concern for it. For the moment China’s main worry is the attempts by US to weaken China by building anti-China coalition. It wants to bring together all the nations which don’t approve of Chinese influence – economically and militarily – and hence share a desire to cooperate and coordinate. Washington is shaping its economic policies around the foreign folicy and natural security concerns. Supply chains are being restructured where China’s role will be undermined. India should seize the opportunity to butt in China plus one policy. Thus, we should aim at building our economy. This will help us in building our military might too.

Two, since India will be hosting the G20 summit this year, China would not want to internationalise the border issue and put itself under bad stoplight. It is not only US that China has to worry about. China’s support for Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has heightened European concerns about creeping Chinese influence on the continent. Besides, India has sought to balance its ties with both Russia and West. China has been unable to leverage India’s differences with its Western partners on Russia, nor could it drive a wedge between India and the US. China thus may find it lonely at the top.

However, we should not have a blinkered view about Chinese limitations. There is no point in shutting our eyes towards seeing a mammoth rise of Chinese capabilities in technologies reporting its military power such as space, autonomous weaponry, and overall cyber sector. This means that, if not already, China is likely to have a military force that is technologically far superior to t hat of India. This will raise the Indian challenge very considerably and the power asymmetry will further align in favour of our adversary. India will find it increasingly more difficult to deter China from having aggressive postures. There is a very lethal potion of hegemonic ambition, a tendency to bully the neighbours, ambition to make China supreme, and growing technological heft. While India has addressed the issue by developing capabilities, building new relationship, alter its world view and grow economically we are constrained by resource limitations. The only way out is to forge new relationships with ‘friendly’ nations like US, France, Australia and Japan both bilaterally and other multilateral fora. India has to follow an effective deterrent strategy which should include building of a network of strategic alliances.

There is a renewed realization in the West that in the long run the real threat will come from China. Thus, there is a conscious attempt to reduce its economic reliance on China for critical products. This is what India needs to do too. Second, the West is limiting China’s access to strategic technologies on one hard and is seeking new partnerships with like-minded nations. India should come forward and be a part of this alliance. India, in other words, should use this sentiment against China to its advantage for building our nation economically and militarily. Besides, it should build a groundswell of public opinion against Chinese designs which adversely impact India and the rest of the world. 

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