Congress: Near Impossible poll walk after yatra
While the recent padyatra undertaken by Gandhi scion may have partly done some good to his image,it is doubtful if it has added to the political capital of Congress. — KK Srivastava
In the aftermath of humiliating defeats in five state elections last year the Congress Party proposed to reinvent itself through a padyatra so as to reestablish the fraying (frayed?) connection with aam aadmi. Rahul Gandhi (RG) now has actually travelled for 135 days covering 75 districts (14 states). Simple message: BJP is sowing seeds of animosity; only Congress can neutralize this challenge.
The campaign did attract reasonable crowds and energized the party workers. The walk to some extent refurbished (negative to positive) RG’s image of being only a part time politician and being a simpleton (Pappu); the brand got a make over. Things like walking only in a T-shirt (no warm clothes even in harsh winter), covering on foot nearly 20 km everyday, sharing warm hugs, etc. did work. On a macro level the yatra established the party’s organizational skills in handling ground level and social media resources. The party did get rehabilitated but with significant questions still remaining unanswered. Beyond the reconnect, were there any significant positive takeways?
There is no proof that the increased soft power of RG’s likeability is matched by increased hard power to show victory signs in coming elections. Infact, ambivalently, the campaign itself declined to adduce the yatra to any tangible electoral ambitions. Winning elections requires a clear electoral agenda, focused leadership, dedicated organization, committed workers, and of course ample resources. One really doubts if the party ticks right on all these boxes. Optics are one thing (yatra) but tangibility (positive electoral wins) is an entirely another ball game. No doubt roughly 119 million people voted for Congress in 2019. But it is not sufficient, especially in face of new challenges from AAP and TMC – infact from the hushed talks about a Congress Mukt opposition are also in air. There are nine state elections lined up in 2023 ahead of 2024 Lok Sabha elections. At present the yatra appears to be just a vanity project for RG rather than being an instrument to catalyze the much delayed revival of the grand old party.
There is no doubt that there is discontentment over social and economic issues among people, as is very natural in a vast and diverse democracy, the size of which nowhere else in the world is duplicated. But this disaffection with the ruling regime is sporadic. More importantly, giving the agonizing voice a patient hearing is one thing, but winning elections on that basis by weaving such grievances into a tight political campaign is an arduous task. At the present juncture Congress hardly seems to be equal to the task. Moreover, most other opposition parties declined to joint the yatra as cotravellers despite being invited. For unseating NDA there has to be a potent UPA with Congress being the nucleus; this joint opposition then needs to sell a vision that strikes at the vulnerability of the ruling dispensation. So far there is no indication that there is any baby step being taken in this direction. In the absence of such efforts, and consequently in face of a united BJP and disunited opposition, the ruling NDA will not have to hand over the reins in 2024.
To be sure the socio economic disparities are hitting some pockets, but this disaffection still cannot counter effectively the political gains arising out of a very successful conjured imagery of nationalism, masculine nation, and Hindutva for BJP.
The Udaipur Chintan Shivir talked about structural reforms, including taking the organization to being more democratic and younger. So far no work is in sight, except that successful organizing of this yatra has energized the grass root level workers. But, as we said earlier, no new alliances with other opposition parties could be formed, including even some traditional Congress ‘friends’. Rahul won, the alliance did not get strengthened. While for him it is a definite gain, for the party the gains are iffy. He exhibited his staying power through a spectacle covered by the lights of camera and bytes by media. But the same cannot be said about the party. While BJP’s iron grip is weakening no doubt, but just about. Besides, the consequent gains are being captured by Congress, this is not the case. An on the edge victory in Himachal does not put out myriad signals, as shouted out by Congress, indicating that henceforth Congress will prove equal to BJP. Not true, yet.
The Congress Party is preparing itself to meet the 2024 challenge on two main planks: one, revive and energize the organization; two, propagate the ideology the party firmly believer in. Addressing his Party this year, Kharge said: “… The onus is on us to save our constitution and democratic ethos. Every Indian should feel that the Congress is the medium and vehicle in realizing their dreams and aspirations of a secular, progressive and liberal India. Let this be the year that we work hard to raise the voice of every Indian, especially the weakest.” Grand words but how to translate them into actionable work?
The party aims to release charge sheets periodically as it did in 2003, focusing on issues concerning the masses. But to make these bread-and-butter issues work to its advantage, the party needs efficient, empowered, and effective state level organization. This is the Achilles heel. In the absence of that Kharge’s words will not work as clarion call, but will perhaps be the famous last words.
On the other hand under the energetic and dynamic duo – Modi and Shah – the BJP is a very fit, aggressive, fighting, and full of pelf election winning machine. For example, recently it has identified nearly 130,000 poll booths in nearly 200 seats where BJP has either never won, or lost narrowly, or had reasonable support. Each such constituency will have a full time incharge who will stay there tell next Lok Sabha election. All Union Ministers will be allotted constituencies. They then will be tasked to monitor the delivery and spread of centre’s flagship programs so as to ensure that benefits reach those targeted. Pre poll prepping is always in green light mode in battle hardened organizational apparatus of BJP. Of course it helps that the party is resources – media, money, muscle, manpower – rich. RG is up against a very-very formidable, and determined, opposition – BJP – which is agile, aggressive, argumentative, and is continuing to project the Congress leader as asinine. While the first yatra is relatively easy, the real challenge for RG is the next one where he has to trek to the people, party, and polls. Abhi Dilli Door Hei: it is a long arduous walk still.
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