Technological changes and Road Ahead for India@2047
India can easily achieve the target of US$ 10 trillion GDP by 2030 if due attention is paid for R&D and innovation. — Dr. Dhanpat Ram Agarwal
In the present era of knowledge, technology and innovation, we notice an inextricable link between the economic growth and the technological development. This holds true for a company and a country, both. The new economy led by digital players like Google, Face Book, Amazon, Apple and many others have replaced the earlier giants like General Motors, Exxon Mobile and AT&T. Many like Kodak, Black Berry, Nokia and others have either become sick or closed or are on the verge of being extinct either due to obsolescence of the old technology or due to non-adoption of the competitive intelligence. This was true even 500 years before when Indian economy was at its peak and that was also because that we were the origin of knowledge in the field of science, mathematics, astrophysics and medicine. Aryabhatt invented Zero and Decimals which is the basis of modern science including artificial intelligence. We were number one in textile manufacturing and there are several evidences to support that Indian economy contributed more than 25 per cent of global GDP even until 17th century before the arrival of British who started exploiting and destroying our industry. East India Company came to India before the industrial revolution and therefore it came to India to buy Indian goods and not to sell foreign goods as there was nothing which was manufactured in England in those days. The objective of this article is to focus that it was science and technology which made India great and today again we need to regain our past glory by recognising the importance of research and development and to produce Swadeshi goods which are best in quality and least in manufacturing cost to meet the demand of the global market.
The technology is moving today much faster than the economic planning or the market demands or even before the legal framework is ready to regulate its impact on the whole economic or social behaviour.
Creative destruction is the buzzword. In earlier era when the steam Engine was invented in 1712 in the first phase or when the electricity was invented in 1752 in the second phase the industrial revolution had just started and for more than two centuries, there was no paradigm shift in the in the field of science and technology except some incremental development for automobiles and other modes of transport including aeroplanes and few minor changes in the process for chemical or electrical segments.
However the third phase of industrial revolution which began with the invention of computers in 1945 and then the fourth phase with the invention of Internet in 1983, the information and communication technology has really transformed and revolutionised the life style and the functioning of the global economy. The pace of technological changes continues in unbound manner and we are moving towards the fifth phase of industrial revolution in the form of artificial intelligence and automation through robotics, machine learning, block chain technology, cloud computing and internet of things which are creating new challenges for unemployment, paving the way for a new economy. However there are two basic challenges of technology namely unemployment and environment or the climate change which is again to be resolved through green technology towards decarbonisation and sustainable development goals. It would not be out of place to mention that India has an obligation under the Paris agreement under Article 4.19 to strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies for low carbon development pathways. It is to be noted that according to IPCC AR-6 Report 2022, that India’s contribution together with other south Asian countries is only 4% as against 23% of North America and 16% of Europe in the net anthropogenic emissions between 1850 and 2019 although South Asia represents 24% of the global population as against North America and Europe together represents only 13% of the global population. India is committed to net zero emissions by 2070 and has already planned for producing 50% of its cumulative electricity installed capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030.
Amidst these changes, we find that the countries which are spending more towards R&D are able to expand their economic size and are able to dominate more economic power by producing cheaper capital and consumer goods and are influencing the legitimacy of international trade and investments through the existing world economic order. It is a different issue that a new international economic order is necessary for an equitable and balanced growth but that question is not dealt with here and needs further discussion for the geo-politics and geo-economics. However it is important to understand the close link between the technology and the economic development.
For example USA has the GDP of nearly US $21 Trillion, China US $18 trillion and our country, India is hovering around US $3 trillion out of the global GDP of about US $94 trillion in the year 2021-22. It is important to understand that the US population is only around 33.83 crores which is less than 5 % of the global population of nearly 800 crores and the population of both China and India is nearly 140 Crores or nearly 18 per cent of the global population. However there is a direct link between the spending on research, the number of scientific inventions translated into the number of patent filings and the size of the GDP. USA spends almost 3% of its GDP, China nearly 2%, whereas India spends only 0.7% of its GDP on R&D as against the World average of 1.8%. Even Niti Ayog has accepted that India’s spending on R&D is one of the lowest in the World. This position is further fructified by the number of patent filing. China has filed 1.59 million or almost 16 lakhs Patents in 2021 against the total world filing of 3.4million or 34 lakhs or nearly 50% of the world filing of patents. USA being the second, filed 5,91473, Japan 2,89200, Republic of Korea 2,37,998 and Europe 1,88,178. Together, these five offices accounted for 85.1% of the total number of patents filed in 2021. However a noticeable change is taking place in the filing trends of patents as would be evident from the decline in percentage terms for USA and Europe and increase in the percentage of the Asian patents. Whereas there is increase in Asia from 54.6% to 67.6%, there is declining trends in North America from 25% to 18.5% and in Europe from 15.5% to 10.5% during 2011 to 2021. The countries with top five numbers in Patent filing are also the countries whose share in the global GDP is more than 75%. India’s filing is just 61573 in 2021 and out of the same; almost three fourth is filed by Multi-national corporations. Even when we compare India’s ranking in the global innovation index which has though improved in the last few years but still at 40th position as compared to USA second and China 11th position. We must motivate and legalise compulsory spending on R&D by the private sector just like CSR spending if we really want to be a big economic power by 2047 as major part of research is taking place in Government institutions like CSIR and other IITs.
India can easily achieve the target of US$ 10 trillion GDP by 2030 if due attention is paid for R&D and innovation. It will help self-reliance for the local producers and the village based small and medium industry which provides employment to youth and enable them to produce quality goods and at competitive prices. In the long run our current account deficit will be reduced and our dependence on foreign capital will also be reduced and thus our Rupee which is on a devaluation mode will reverse its direction to appreciation mode and stop importing inflation. In the long run our dependence on crude oil will also come down with the adoption of new green technology to meet our energy requirements. Thus technology will help economic development and We will be able to increase standard of living of our people and remove the problems of poverty and unemployment in a phased manner.
The Author is National Co-convenor, SJM
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